forexsignals

Montag, 20. oktober 2008

Weekly trading signal and pattern 19.10-25.10.08

As i posted last week i wanted to buy yes crosses on dips and also EUR/USD and GBP/USD. i am in at 1.3350 in EUR/USD (hit 16.10) and was also in GBP/USD from 1.6800 level last week. Cable I closed at my given profit level at 1.7600 (14.10), EUR/USD i am still in. EUR/JPY i was in from 133.50 buying level posted here and closed 141.00 (14.10), rebought 133.50 (16.10) and still in this second trade. GBP/JPY I was in from 168 level as mentioned buying level and closed at profit levels given here at 180.00 (14.10) . Unfortunately GBP/JPY didnt make it back down to my buying levels again for a second trade.
 
So actually i am in 1 lot EUR/USD and 1 lot EUR/JPY.
 
Upcoming week (20-25.10.08)
 
I will continue to buy yen crosses on dips and also EUR/USD and GBP/USD and AUD/USD on dips. Friday 17.10. was option day, so we may see market open sunday evening 19.10 some gaps down in the yen crosses. If so and we see our famous buying levels again, i will not hesitate to buy again. Same for EUR, GBP, AUD against USD. I am looking for EUR/USD to move in the 1.3750 area initially, GBP/USD to 1.78/79 and AUD/USD to 0.76/77.
 
von forexmaster
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Montag, 20. oktober 2008

Gap Strategy and Newstrading Strategy 12.-17.10.08

1. Update GAP Strategy  (13.17.10.08)
 
GAP Strategy not valid. see posting last week
 
 
Who is interested in getting these calls real time (free) for the upcoming week, feel free to contact me by mail
 
2. Update: Newstrading Strategy (13-17.10.08):
 
 
Only trade this week was US retail sales (15.10.08) . Our trigger was 0.5 and it came out 0.4, so our trigger was not hit and we ddint took the trade. Price made a good 30 pip move short and its good to see such normal moves again.
 
Upcoming week (20-25.10.08):
 
Interesting will be the rate decisions of CAD and NZ. I think there will be great news trading possibilities with our autoclick software. Besides we have UK retail sales and CAD Retail sales, that should provide great moves. The other newsreleases i will give announcements to our members if and how we take seperately, as usual.
 
 
Who is interested in taking part of our newstrading group, to get these signals in real time for the upcoming week, feel free to contact me.
 
 
 
link GAP strategy original posting: http://forexmaster.over-blog.com/article-20682051.html
von forexmaster
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Dienstag, 14. oktober 2008

Weekly trading signal and pattern 03.10.-10.10.08

I personally will buy all this week yen crosses on dips in antecipation of a reverse in risk appetite the coming week, and will continue to do so, of course with decreased lots. buying levels are 133.50/134.00 (EUR/JPY), 168.00-170.00 (GBP/JPY) and 1.3350-1.3450 in EUR/USD reps. 1.6870-1.2950 in GBP/USD. Taking profit levels are 141.00 EUR/YEN, 181-182 (GBP/JPY), 1.3780-1.3900 (EYR/USD) amnd 1.7500 (GBP/USD). Again, i dont think the crisis is over and we have seen the equity lows yet, and i dont expect an substantial rally over long time in YEN crosses, so i look to take profit at these given levels and bring stop loss to breakeven as soon as possible.
von forexmaster
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Dienstag, 14. oktober 2008

Gap Strategy and Newstrading Strategy 03.-10.10.08

1. Update GAP Strategie vom 03.-10.10.08:
 
 
Die GAP Strategie konnte wiederum nicht angewandt werden unter diesen Bedingungen. Keine Trades! 
 
 
Wer daran interessiert ist, diese calls real time per mail oder yahoo messenger fuer die jeweils kommende Woche im voraus zu bekommen, maile mir.
 
 
2. Update: Newstrading Strategy (03.-10.10.08):
 
AUD Interest Rate Decision, 07.10.08
 
Erwartet wurde eine Zinssenkung um 0.5 Basispunkte und unser trigger war 0.25. Wenn die RBA nur um 0.25 senken wuerde, wollten wir AUD/USD kaufen. Wenn sie um mehr als 0.5 senken wuerden, AUD/USD verkaufen. Nun, sie senkten um einen vollen Basispunkt!!! Unser trigger wurde ausgeloest und unsere software brachte uns in den trade vor dem spike fuer einen 150 pips Gewinn in weniger als 2 Minuten!! Ich habe daraufhin gewiesen, dass wir sofort Profit nehmen, and wir konnten deshalb nahezu alle eine durchschnittlichen Profit von 100 pips einfahren und mussten nicht mit ansehen, wie der Profit nach weniger als drei Minuten wieder jaemmerlich verschwand, da der trade sich umkehrte.
 
Fuer diese Art von news wurde unsere software und trading signale geschaffen und es macht Freude zu sehen, wie sie funktioniert fuer einen 150 pips Gewinn in 2 Minuten!

 
1. Update GAP Strategy  (03.10.10.08)
 
GAP Strategy not valid. see posting last week
 
 
Who is interested in getting these calls real time (free) for the upcoming week, feel free to contact me by mail
 
2. Update: Newstrading Strategy (03;10.10.08):
 
AUD Interest Rate Decision, 07.10.08
 
expected was 0.5 basis point cut, and our trigger was 0.25. if they only cut 0.25 we would buy AUD/USD, if they cut 0.75 or more, we would sell AUD/USD. And they cut 1 full basis point. we got triggered in short AUD/USD for 150 pips spike profit. As i mentioned many times here in this blog: while we have these market conditions, dont try to hold your position, take profit! The spike reversed indeed after only few minutes. But who got in the spike with our software and took profit how i told you to do, made a fast 150 pip profit in less than 2 minutes!!!
 
For this kind of news trading our software was created and its a pleasure to see hoe she works - for a 150 pips profit in 2 minutes!!!!!
 
CAD Labour change (10.10.08) trigger not hit, no trade.
 
CAD Labour change is a monster report, who provided in the last years always between 40 and 200 pips if our trigger was hit. However, there was a huge dollar rally versus the canadian dollar before the release (oil price breakdown) and we decidced only to take the trade it the job report goes in the same direction of the trend, means, we only took a sell (more jobs lost than expected). The actual release showed an immense increase in jobs, so our trigger was not hit. Maybe we would have chashed a few pips if we would also have taken the sell side, but the spike was so short before he reversed that other newstraders reported they couldnt take profit and reported loss with this report, So i guess i can say it was good we didnt take the trade.
 
 
Of course it was an amazing week. But very dangerous to trade. we didnt trade many news we would normally take and will continue to do so. We will not trade any inflation reports (cpi, ppi), because the market just dont care for inflation. We will not trade second tier reports anymore for some time, too, and focus on just the most important reports with decreased lots, low slippage and high triggers. This is the way to go the next weeks.
 
 Who is interested in taking part of our newstrading group, to get these signals in real time for the upcoming week, feel free to contact me.
 
link GAP strategy original posting: http://forexmaster.over-blog.com/article-20682051.html
von forexmaster
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Sonntag, 5. oktober 2008

Gap Strategy and Newstrading Strategy 29.09.-03.10.08

1. Update GAP Strategie vom 28/29.09.08:
 
 
Die GAP Stratgie ist nicht anwendbar diesen Sonntagabend. Der TARP (Trouble Asset Relief Program)-Plan scheint beschlossene sache zu sein, aber ob der im Kongress durchkommt, ist die Frage. Die news dazu in der Asien- und kommenden London- und New York- Session werden den Dollarkurs kurzfristig entscheidend bestimmen, und in diesem Umfeld ist die GAP-Strategie nicht anwendbar. Die GAPs (EUR/JPY schwaecher, EUR/USD und GBP/USD schwaecher) koennen zwar geschlossen werden, muessen es aber nicht. Keine Trades! 
 
 
Wer daran interessiert ist, diese calls real time per mail or yahoo messenger zu bekommen, maile mir.
 
 
2. Update: Newstrading Strategy (29-03.09/10.08):
 
UK GDP Dienstag 30.09.08 kein trade, trigger (0.1) nicht ausgeloest
 
CAD GDP dienstag 30.09.08  trigger (0.2) ausgeloest, 8 pips profit.
 
 
Natuerlich kein Mosterprofit. Aber unter diesen Marktbedingungen haben wir dies auch nicht anders erwartet. Wir empfehlen zur Zeit nicht, news spike zu traden, und wenn dann nur mit kleinen lots. Diesen Trage haben wir gewagt, um zu sehen, ob spike trading ueberhaupt momentan noch Sinn macht.
 
 
US ISM, US ADP report und Australische Handelsbilanz (01.10.08 werde ich nicht traden. Ich werde in meinen managed accounts erst wieder traden, wenn der modifizierte TARP plan durch den Kongress ist. Kein big player ist im Moment an news interessiert, und deshalb sind nur sehr kleine spikes zu beobachten, die von den spike tradern selber kommen. Dies ist fuer mich im Interesse meiner Kunden ein nicht eingehbares Risiko, nur um ein potentiell 3 oder 4 pips zu ergattern.
 
 
ECB Zinsentscheid, 02.10.08, trigger (0.25) nicht getroffen
 
Nonfarm payroll, 03.10.08 werde ich nicht traden. Solange der Hilfsplan nicht durch den US-Kongress ist, kann NFP absurde Resultate zeigen. Ich erwarte einen starken Jobabbau, der den Konsensus noch ubertrifft, aber ist dies nun positiv oder negativ fuer USD/JPY? Nagativ sollte es sein, doch einige Geister moegen denken, dass mit einem sehr schlechten NFP der Druck zunimmt, den Plan durch den Kongress zu bringen, und dies ist wieder USD positiv.
 
Anm. NFP war wirklich viel schlechter als erwartet, und USD/JPY zeigte aber nach einem blitzspike Staerke, EUR/USD und GBP/USD machten gar neue lows. Meine Befuerchtungen haben sich bestaetigt.
 
 
1. Update GAP Strategy  29-04.09/10.08:
 
GAP Strategy not valid. The Trouble Asset Relief Program (TARP) seems to have an consens sunday afternoon, but will it go through the congress? Every news during Asian, London and New York Session concerning this plan will decide the Dollars near term future. In this environment the GAP strategy is not valid. The GAPS occured this Asian openuing (EUR/JPY down 70 pips, EUR/USD and GBP/USD down) maybe closed, but dont have to. We dont take a trade.
 
 
 
Who is interested in getting these calls real time (free), feel free to contact me by mail
 
2. Update: Newstrading Strategy (29.09-03.10.08):
 
CAD GDP tuesday 30.09.08 trigger (0.2) hit, 8 pips profit on USD/CAD
 
Again, under this market conditions (TARP plan rejected, new meeting only thursday) we couldnt expect more than this.We dont recommend to trade news at all or at least with decreased lots under this conditions. This was a trade we took, more to see if news spike trading is possible at all than to get huge profits.
 
US ISM, ADP, Australian trade balance (01.10.08) not taken. I will not trade in my managed accounts until the modified TARP plan is through. No big player focuses in the moment on any news, its simply not worth to take a risk for potential 3 or 4 pips profit.
 
ECB Rate decision, 02.10.08, trigger (0.25) not hit, no trade
 
Nonfarm Payroll, 03.10.08 i decided to not trade. As long as the bailout plan has not passed though the congress, things can go weird with this release. If more jobs than expected are lost, is this seen now as negative like it should be in USD/JPY or maybe even as positive, because some folks may think with such a bad number the pressure to pass the plan may increase?
 
PS NFP was really much worse than expected, but USD/JPY rose and didnt fall. EUR/USD and GBP/USD made even new lows for the week. I guess, i was pretty right to not take this trade.
 
 
Who is interested in taking part of our newstrading group, feel free to contact me
 
link GAP strategy original posting: http://forexmaster.over-blog.com/article-20682051.html
 
von forexmaster
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Samstag, 27. september 2008

Gap Strategy and Newstrading Strategy 22.-26.09.08

1. Update GAP Strategie vom 21/22.0909:
 
GAPs EUR/JPY Friday close 155.40 Sunday open 164.75
          EUR/USD Friday close 1.4465 Sunday open 1.4493
 
Die Yen crosses zeigten die groessten GAPs von mindestens 70 pips. Die oben genannten trades wurden live ausgerufen. Beide gaps wurden geschlossen, EUR/USD gleich sonntag abend nach 2 Stunden, EUR/JPY montag morgen. Nettogewinn: 65 pips + 28 pips = 93 pips
 
Wer daran interessiert ist, diese calls real time per mail or yahoo messenger zu bekommen, maile mir.
 
 
2. Update: Newstrading Strategy (22-26.09.08):
 
CAD retail Sales (core) montag 22.09.08 kein trade, trigger (0.4) nicht ausgeloest.
 
CAD cpi (core) dienstag 23.09.08 trigger (0.2) ausgeloest, 5 pips profit on USD/CAD
 
Der Markt kuemmert sich gerade herzlich wenig um CPI Daten und spikes haven die nervige Angewohnheit, sich blitzschnell umzukehren. Deshalb haben wir unsere lots verringert bei diesem trade, und auch EUR/CAD nicht simultan getraded, was wir normalerweise bei CAD Veroeffentlichungen tun. Meine 15 pips Profit schmelzten leider dahin zu mageren 5, weil ich bei staendig wechselnden rates nicht frueher aus dem trade kam.
 
 German IFO sentiment 24.09.08 trigger (1.0) ausgeloest, 10 pips Verlust in EUR/JPY
 
Das war nun wirklich heasslich. Der spike down war so schnell und gering, dass es unmoeglich war aus dem trade mit profit zu kommen. Meine order in EUR/USD wurde gluecklicherweise nicht ausgeloest (rates chaged), EUR/JPY muste mit 10 pips Verlust geschlossen werden. Letztem Monate hatten wir mit einer ahenlichen Abweichung 100 pips in weniger als 30 Minuten gesehen. Unter diesen marktpolitischen Bedingungen wird zunehmend jeder newstrade gefahrlicher. Darueber sollte man sich im klaren sein und entsprechend seinen lots veringern und jedne Profit baldmoeglichst absichern (SL). Moneymanagemt ist das allerwichtigste in diesem Umfeld.
 
 
US Durable Goods 25.05.08 trigger (2.0) hit, 20 pips profit USD/JPY
 
Neuseeland GDP 25.09.08 (trigger 0.2) haben wir nicht getraded. Die trigger-signale aus Neuseeland kommen erfahrungsgemaess immer etwas verzoegert und dies, zusammen mit den momentan Ungewissheit des US Bankenrettungsplanes und fast minuetlich auftauchenden neuen Geruechten dazu, hat mich dazu veranlasst, diesen trade nicht zu nehmen. (Der trigger wurde getroffen, und es gab einen 30-40 pip spike).
 
 
USD GDP 26.09.08 trigger (0.2) getroffen, 8 pips profit in USD/JPY.
 
Wie erwartet kein Mostertrade, aber nette 8 pips fuer das Wochende.
 
 
 
1. Update GAP Strategie vom 21/22.0909:
 
GAPs EUR/JPY Friday close 155.40 Sunday open 164.75
          EUR/USD Friday close 1.4465 Sunday open 1.4493
 
The yen crosses showed the biggest GAPs, all about 70 or more pips. We concentrated on EUR/JPY and EUR/USD and gave this call right at the market open. Both GAPs closed, the first Monday early morning, the second already after 2 hours sunday night. Profit: 65 pips + 28 pips = 93 pips
 
Who is interested in getting these calls real time (free), feel free to contact me by mail
 
2. Update: Newstrading Strategy (22-26.09.08):
 
CAD Retail Sales (core) monday 22.09.08 no trade, trigger (0.4) not hit
 
CAD cpi (core) tuesday 23.09.08 trigger (0.2) hit, 5 pips profit USD/CAD.
 
We knew that cpi lately dont respond very well, because the market focus less on inflation data in this market conditions. Therefore we decreased the lots, didnt trade EUR/CAD simultaneously (like we normally would do with CAD releases)  and were ready to get out of a spike very soon. My 15 pips initial profit was unfortunately decreased to 5 becasue my broker didnt let me out as soon as 3 seconds after the release (rates changed, deal not traded).
 
German IFO wednesday 24.09.08 trigger (1.0) hit, 10 pips lost in EUR/JPY
 
That was an ungly one. The spike down was so fast and little, that it was impossible to get out otf the trade for a profit, but only for this minimal loss. My orders in EUR/USD didnt get filled, what was lucky. Last month with a deviation not much different we got over 100 pips in lesss than 30 minutes. As long as this financial market is in this unpredictable condition due to bank crisis, also every newstrade is more and more dangerous. Always protect your profit as soon as possible and decrease you lot sizes. Moneymangement is all in this environment.
 
US Durable Goods 25.05.08 trigger (2.0) hit, 20 pips profit USD/JPY
 
NZ GDP 25.05.08 trigger (0.2) we didnt trade. The signals from NZ use to come very late and combined with this uncertain market conditions with the US bailout plan pending the risk was too high for me (the trigger was hiot and there was a 30-40 pips spike) .
 
USD GDP 26.09.08 trigger (0.2) hit, 8 pips profit on USD/JPY
 
Who is interested in taking part of our newstrading group, feel free to contact me
von forexmaster
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Dienstag, 16. september 2008

GAP strategy and horror news from wall street

The GAP strategy and horror news from wall street 
 
its somehow funny how exactly the same dummies that shouted for a eur/usd 1.70 some weeks ago forecast a level of 1.1-1.2  in the nearer future. In my humble opinion there is no way to tell where the dollar might go in the coming weeks. Yes, its true, the ghost of recession seems to be now also over europe. So now we have recessionary signs in EUR, GB, Japan, New Zealand definetely, and what about the US? The US economy is far away from getting strong again, we might have seen the USD bottom in july this year, but the grade of recovery is still weak and every financial horror news that comes on and on like today with Lehmann and AIG has the power to negiate any stronger recovery at least in the short term. 
 
I got many questions concerning the GAP strategy on sunday open these days. To make it clear: the GAP strategy is one of the most reliable strategies in forex market. In over 80 % a main GAP at sunday open (15-20 pips at least) will be filled in 24 hours. BUT: GAP strategy is only valid under normal conditions! It is not valid if significant market news are released over the weekend. Then there will be huge GAPs that, however, might never be filled. Two weeks ago Bank of England Governor gave an interview saturday that the UK is in the worst condition since 20 years and GPD/USD of course showed a huge GAP on sunday open (down more than 200 pips), and that GAP was NOT filled. This weekend with the news of hurrican IKE (affect oil price) and Lehmann brothers bankrupcy/AIG problems again brings the market in conditions that the GAP strategy ist NOT valid. EUR/USD and GPD/USD closed the 200 pips GAP in 24 hours, but this was nothing more than luck. USD/JPY didnt close the 250 pip GAP!.
von forexmaster
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Montag, 28. juli 2008

Weekly trading signal and pattern 27-02.07/08.08

Update:
GBP/USD, sold at 1.9950 and 2.0020, like mentioned last sunday, was taken profit after the terrible Retails sales at 1.9840. EUR/USD, taken at 1.5900 last monday, as recommended here as well, was taken profit thursday (after expected weak IFO index) at 1.5660. Profits last week: 340 pips on EUR/USD trade and 140 (2x) on Cable.
I expect a sharp correction in these pairs to the upside now. Its still not the time for a really USD trend change. All US data are more or less terrible, and if a surprising data release is out, its mainly because the number is not as bad as expected, but far away from something that could be called good.
 
I am going to short Cable and Eur again, but only from levels above 2.000, resp. 1.5900, if they ever reach that level again.
Another possible trade this week may be to sell remaining NZD/USD strength. This pair is oversold, and up for a correction, but fundamentally Kiwi (NZD) should only see one direction: down. The economy is weakening and the Royal Bank of NZ made clear that they are going to continue with their rate cuts.
Looking for an entry this week if the expected upside correction comes.  
 
GAP strategy: no GAPs occured this sunday opening
 
 
Have a good trading week!
 
Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange carries a high level of risk, and for sure is not suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your level of risk appetite. The possibility exists that you take a loss of some or all of your initial investment. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and its recommended to seek advice from an independent financial advisor. In no means there are made trading recommendations on this site, this is only for educational purposes. If you decide however to invest your money, its on your very own risk and you should only take only money what you can afford to lose.
von forexmaster
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Montag, 21. juli 2008

Weekly trading signal and pattern 20-25.07.08

update:
 
my eur/usd trade from last week i closed already monday morning at 1.5858 for 70 pips. togehter with gbp/usd, taken from 1.9905 friday 11.th, took profit at 1.9820 after UK PPI monday morning as well. I still believe there shoud be more downside to come in these two pairs, but i am looking for even better entries. 160 pips in one day is enough for me (and more 60 pips from GAP strategy).  
 
a decent strategy for this coming week is still to sell eur/usd and gbp/usd strength. all near 1.5900 is a sell for me, however 1.5770 is the key level that has to be broken to see a real downmove in coming weeks.
 
GAP strategy:
 
this sunday night only aud/usd and aud/jpy showed a reasonable gap to trade. However, later this sunday is Australian ppi, and the GAP might not be closed if PPI deviates much to the upside.  



 
 
Have a good trading week!
 
Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange carries a high level of risk, and for sure is not suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your level of risk appetite. The possibility exists that you take a loss of some or all of your initial investment. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and its recommended to seek advice from an independent financial advisor. In no means there are made trading recommendations on this site, this is only for educational purposes. If you decide however to invest your money, its on your very own risk and you should only take only money what you can afford to lose.
 
von forexmaster
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Montag, 14. juli 2008

Weekly trading signal and pattern 13-19.04.07.08

update:
 
EUR/USD
 
despite good US date from friday (trade balance, uni of michigan confidence all better than expected), eur/usd managed to give an impressive final day of the last week with levels over 1.59, but the force behind this usd sell over was pure panic (stock market, gse). The aggressive strategy of this week is to sell eur/usd on this strength. Eur is terribly overvalued in my opinion, Bernanke speeks this coming week, where he probably focuses again more on inflation than economic outlook (we know already that its terrible!!) Short anything over 1.59 this week and stop loss agressive over 1.6080!!!
Only risk takers may like this trade!!!
 
I am actually short from 1.5930 and will add if eur/usd should continue to rise




 
also recommended GBP/USD over 1.9900 sell, but i will focus on my EUR/USD trade.  
 
 
GAP strategy:
 
EUR/USD opened at 1.5970 versus a friday close of 1.5938 and USD/JPY opened at 106.00 versus 106.35, two 30 pips gaps!!! both were filled in about one hour time!


 
 
 
 
Have a good trading week!
 
Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange carries a high level of risk, and for sure is not suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your level of risk appetite. The possibility exists that you take a loss of some or all of your initial investment. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and its recommended to seek advice from an independent financial advisor. In no means there are made trading recommendations on this site, this is only for educational purposes. If you decide however to invest your money, its on your very own risk and you should only take only money what you can afford to lose.
 
von forexmaster
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